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Sunday, November 14, 2010

When Can You Trade Forex?

Best Days of the Week to Trade

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So now we know that the London session is the busiest out of all the other sessions, but there are also certain days in the week where all the markets tend to show more movement.

Below is a chart of average pip range for the major pairs for each day of the week:

Pair Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
EUR/USD 69 109 142 136 145 144
GBP/USD 73 149 172 152 169 179
USD/JPY 41 65 82 91 124 98
AUD/USD 58 84 114 99 115 111
NZD/USD 28 81 98 87 100 96
USD/CAD 43 93 112 106 120 125
USD/CHF 55 84 119 107 104 116
EUR/JPY 19 133 178 159 223 192
GBP/JPY 100 169 213 179 270 232
EUR/GBP 35 74 81 79 75 91
EUR/CHF 35 55 55 64 87 76
As you can see from the chart above, it would probably be best to trade during the middle of the week, since this is when the most action happens.

Fridays are usually busy until 12pm EST and then the market pretty much drops dead until it closes at 5:00 pm EST. This means we only work half-days on Fridays.

The weekend always starts early! Yippee!

So based on all these, we've learned when the busiest times of the market are. The busiest times are the best times to trade because they give you a higher chance of success.

Managing Yo Time Wisely

Unless you're Edward Cullen, who does not sleep, there is no way you can trade all sessions. Even if you could, why would you? While the forex market is open 24 hours daily, it doesn't mean that action happens all the time!

Besides, sleep is an integral part of a healthy lifestyle!

You need sleep to recharge and have energy so that you can do even the most mundane tasks like mowing the lawn, talking to your spouse, taking the dog for a walk, or organizing your stamp collection. You'll definitely need your rest if you plan on becoming a hotshot trader.

Each trader should learn when to trade.

Actually, scratch that.

Each trader should know when and when NOT to trade.

Knowing the optimal times you should trade and the times when you should sit out and just play some Plants vs. Zombies can help save you a pound of moolah (pun intended).




Here's a quick cheat sheet of the best and worst times to trade:

Best Times to Trade:

When two sessions are overlapping of course! These are also the times where major news events come out to potentially spark some volatility and directional movements. Make sure you bookmark the Market Hours cheat sheet to take note of the Opening and Closing times.
The European session tends to be the busiest out of the three.
The middle of the week typically shows the most movement, as the pip range widens for most of the major currency pairs.
Worst Times to Trade:

Sundays - everyone is sleeping or enjoying their weekend!
Fridays - liquidity dies down during the latter part of the U.S. session.
Holidays - everybody is taking a break.
Major news events - you don't want to get whipsawed!
During American Idol, the NBA Finals, or the Superbowl.
Can't seem to trade during the optimal sessions? Don't fret. You can always be a swing or position trader. We'll get back to that later.

When Can You Trade Forex?

Trading Sessions


Now that you know what forex is, why you should trade it, and who makes up the forex market, it's about time you learned when you can trade.

Yes, it is true that the forex market is open 24 hours a day, but that doesn't mean it's always active the whole day.

You can make money trading when the market moves up, and you can even make money when the market moves down.

BUT you will have a very difficult time trying to make money when the market doesn't move at all.

And believe us, there will be times when the market is as still as the victims of Medusa. This lesson will help determine when the best times of the day are to trade.




Market Hours


Before looking at the best times to trade, we must look at what a 24 hour day in the forex world looks like.

The forex market can be broken up into four major trading sessions: the Sydney session, the Tokyo session, the London session, and the New York session. Below is a table of the open and close times for each session:

Time Zone EST GMT

Sydney Open 5:00 PM 10:00 PM

Sydney Close 2:00 PM 7:00 AM

Tokyo Open 7:00 PM 12:00 AM

Tokyo Close 4:00 AM 9:00 AM

London Open 3:00 AM 8:00 AM

London Close 12:00 PM 5:00 PM

New York Open 8:00 AM 12:00 PM

New York Close 5:00PM 10:00 PM


You can see that in between each session, there is a period of time where two sessions are open at the same time. From 3:00-4:00 am EST, both the Tokyo and London markets are open, and from 8:00-12:00 am EST, both the London and New York markets are open.

Naturally, these are the busiest times during the market because there is more volume when two markets are open at the same time. This makes sense because during those times, all the market participants are wheelin' and dealin', which means that more money is transferring hands.

Let's take a look at the average pip movement of the major currency pairs during each trading session.

Pair Tokyo London New York
EUR/USD 76 114 92
GBP/USD 92 127 99
USD/JPY 51 66 59
AUD/USD 77 83 81
NZD/USD 62 72 70
USD/CAD 57 96 96
USD/CHF 67 102 83
EUR/JPY 102 129 107
GBP/JPY 118 151 132
AUD/JPY 98 107 103
EUR/GBP 78 61 47
EUR/CHF 79 109 84

From the table, you will see that the European session normally provides the most movement.

Let's take a more in depth look at each of the session, as well as those periods when the sessions overlap.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Who Trade FOREX


Forex Market Structure

For the sake of comparison, let us first examine a market that you are probably very familiar with: the stock market. This is how the structure of the stock market looks like:


"I have no choice but to go through a centralized exchange!"


By its very nature, the stock market tends to be very monopolistic. There is only one entity, one specialist that controls prices. All trades must go through this specialist. Because of this, prices can easily be altered to benefit the specialist, and not traders.

How does this happen?

In the stock market, the specialist is forced to fulfill the order of its clients. Now, let's say the number of sellers suddenly exceed the number of buyers. The specialist, which is forced to fulfill the order of its clients, the sellers in this case, is left with a bunch of stock that he cannot sell-off to the buyer side.

In order to prevent this from happening, the specialist will simply widen the spread or increase the transaction cost to prevent sellers from entering the market. In other words, the specialists can manipulate the quotes it is offering to accommodate its needs.

Trading Spot FX is Decentralized

Unlike in trading stocks or futures, you don't need to go through a centralized exchange like the New York Stock Exchange with just one price. In the forex market, there is no single price that for a given currency at any time, which means quotes from different currency dealers vary.



"So many choices! Awesome!"

This might be overwhelming at first, but this is what makes the forex market so freakin' awesome! The market is so huge and the competition between dealers is so fierce that you get the best deal almost every single time. And tell me, who does not want that?

Also, one cool thing about forex trading is that you can do it anywhere. It's just like trading baseball cards. You want that mint condition Mickey Mantle rookie card, so it is up to you to find the best deal out there. Your colleague might give up his Mickey Mantle card for just a Babe Ruth card, but your best friend will only part with his Mickey Mantle rookie card for your soul.


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The FX Ladder

Even though the forex market is decentralized, it isn't pure and utter chaos! The participants in the FX market can be organized into a ladder. To better understand what we mean, here is a neat illustration:



At the very top of the forex market ladder is the interbank market. Composed of the largest banks of the world and some smaller banks, the participants of this market trade directly with each other or electronically through the Electronic Brokering Services (EBS) or the Reuters Dealing 3000-Spot Matching.

The competition between the two companies - the EBS and the Reuters Dealing 3000-Spot Matching - is similar to Coke and Pepsi. They are in constant battle for clients and continually try to one-up each other for market share. While both companies offer most currency pairs, some currency pairs are more liquid on one than the other.

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For the EBS plaform, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, and USD/CHF are more liquid. Meanwhile, for the Reuters platform, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are more liquid.

All the banks that are part of the interbank market can see the rates that each other is offering, but this doesn't necessarily mean that anyone can make deals at those prices.

Like in real life, the rates will largely dependent on the established CREDIT relationship between the trading parties. Just to name a few, there's the "B.F.F. rate," the "customer rate," and the "ex-wife-you-took-everything rate." It's like asking for a loan at your local bank. The better your credit standing and reputation with them, the better the interest rates and the larger loan you can avail.

Next on the ladder are the hedge funds, corporations, retail market makers and retail ECNs. Since these institutions do not have tight credit relationships with the participants of the interbank market, they have to do their transactions via commercial banks. This means that their rates are slightly higher and more expensive than those who are part of the interbank market.
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At the very bottom of the ladder are the retail traders. It used to be very hard for us little people to engage in the forex market but, thanks to the advent of the internet, electronic trading, and retail brokers, the difficult barriers to entry in forex trading have all been taken down. This gave us the chance to play with those high up the ladder and poke them with a very long and cheap stick.